Introduction:
As the conflict between Israel and Palestine persists, a larger war looms on the horizon. To grasp the magnitude of this proxy war, understanding the key players within the Axis of Resistance is essential.
Section 1: Overview of the Axis of Resistance
Involving Iran, Hezbollah (Lebanon), Ansar Allah (Houthis - Yemen), and Hamas (Palestine), the Axis of Resistance remains a formidable coalition. At its core, Iran plays a pivotal role in providing financial support, military training, and equipment to these groups.
Geo-Political Context:
The Axis of Resistance operates in a complex geopolitical landscape. Iran, seeking to expand its influence in the Middle East, forms alliances with these groups as a means of countering regional rivals and securing strategic interests. The relationships involve not only military support but also political and ideological alignment. This coalition is of increasing concern due to the assisted response from the various groups in the network since Hamas launched its attack on October 7th, 2023. Ansar Allah has been sewing instability in parts of the Red Sea in an attempt to support Hamas, and Hezbollah has also been in a smaller-scale back and forth with Israel since the initial October attack.
Historical Background:
Iran: As a theocratic state since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has actively pursued regional influence. Its involvement with Hezbollah dates back to the Lebanese Civil War, where it sought to counter Israeli influence in the region.
Hezbollah: Formed in the early 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War, Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite political and military force, receiving support from Iran. Its resistance against Israeli forces has solidified its role in the Axis.
Ansar Allah (the Houthi movement): The Houthi movement in Yemen originated in the 1990s. It gained prominence due to its opposition to the Yemeni government and its alignment with Iran’s Shiite interests.
Hamas: Founded in 1987, Hamas has historical ties with the Muslim Brotherhood. While not initially aligned with Iran, their relationship continues to strengthen due to shared opposition to Israel.
Section 2: Threats Posed by Hezbollah and Iran
The primary threats emerge from Hezbollah and Iran, boasting not only extensive war experience but formidable weapons capabilities. Hezbollah, for instance, possesses over 100,000 rockets of varying abilities, with the potential to reach densely populated areas of Israel. Their combat experience, notably in the Lebanese Civil War, underscores their prowess. Iran’s threat should be more tangible, as they are a fully established nation-state with a vastly more modern military compared to a group such as Hamas. Of course, there are two sides to that coin, as Iran faces the risk of being on the receiving end of dire consequences and has already experienced a vengeful response on behalf of the United States in the past. The likelihood of the U.S. directly engaging continues to escalate, particularly when examining the escalations in the Red Sea.
Current Events and Developments:
Recent developments include escalations in the Red Sea, U.S.-Israel relations, the bordering regions between Southern Lebanon and Israel, and unfortunately, the Israel-Palestine conflict is continuing at full force. The Red Sea has been a recent focal point due to Ansar Allah’s warning ships traveling in the Red Sea to avoid Israel, and those that refuse will be attacked. So far Ansar Allah has allegedly attacked four ships and detained the crew of a fifth ship. The Human Rights Watch claims none of these ships were bound for Israel, and provides a lot more detail on the Red Sea situation for those interested. Notable developments between the U.S. and Israel unfolded on December 12, 2023, when President Biden publicly stated Israel is, “starting to lose support by [its] indiscriminate bombing”. This is the most critical thing President Biden has said publicly concerning Israel and could indicate a shift in future decisions. The border separating Lebanon and Israel has also become a growing threat, as Hezbollah and Israel’s exchange of fire continues to escalate. A full-scale war breaking out between Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Israel would almost certainly lead to disaster for both countries, but Lebanon would face far more dire consequences due to Israel’s military capability. This would also increase the pressure on Iran to respond with military support for Hezbollah, and potentially Hamas as well, due to the results of losing both of those groups would lead to a significant loss of influence in the region for Iran.
Global Perspectives:
The international community views the Axis of Resistance with varying degrees of concern. While some nations, particularly those aligned with Iran, support its objectives, others, such as the United States and Israel, perceive it as a destabilizing force in the region.
Section 3: Escalation and Israel’s Direction
As the conflict intensifies, Israel’s trajectory suggests a focus beyond Hamas. The intention to continue operations against Lebanon and Hezbollah becomes evident. History cautions against the ’eradication of a terrorist group’ mentality, as seen in the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan, resulting in unintended consequences, with the Taliban now in control. Title VII of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA) covers the implementation of recommendations from the 9/11 Commission. Subtitle A of this section covers diplomacy, foreign aid, and the military in the war on terrorism mostly about Afghanistan. The legislation will be linked at the end of this article, but for those interested in the summary: The United States does not know how to win the war on terrorism, but it can prevent certain instances of terrorism. This is important to note, particularly when there has been consistent rhetoric on behalf of Israel which indicates October 7th was their 9/11, and they will respond with full force. However, the idea that you can simply eradicate an ideology with hard power has proven false when looking at the United States and its 20-year attempt to “win the war on terrorism”.
Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Initiatives:
Diplomatic efforts have been intermittent, with occasional talks and negotiations, but a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. The involvement of international mediators and organizations, such as the United Nations, has not led to a lasting resolution. Just recently the U.N. successfully voted 13-0 to increase aid to Gaza as well as demanding the release of hostages, however, the vote also had two abstentions (the U.S. & Russia). Unfortunately, there have been no further developments concerning a “pause” or future ceasefire.
Regional Power Dynamics:
The actions of the Axis of Resistance continue to impact the broader power dynamics in the Middle East. Israel’s concerns about the increasing influence of Iran and its proxies contribute to a complex regional landscape, with alliances constantly shifting.
Section 4: Consequences of Indiscriminate Bombing
Indiscriminate bombing campaigns, as witnessed historically, breed more problems. The aftermath leaves a traumatized population harboring resentment. The parallel with past interventions, such as Afghanistan, highlights the importance of considering the long-term impact of military strategies. This example also demonstrates the damage incurred by faulty foreign policy, specifically U.S. policy about the war on terror as mentioned previously. Israel is effectively following in the same footsteps as the U.S., and in turn, will likely face the same long-term consequences of establishing themselves as a nation for others to see with disdain. Israel will also learn that indiscriminate violence in a country breeds more of the same issues the violence is seeking to prevent or dismantle. A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy Survey and Research (PCPSR) indicated that 57% of Palestinians now deem the attacks on October 7th by Hamas a “correct” decision given its outcome so far. This helps to support the notion that indiscriminate bombings which effectively accelerate the deaths of civilians aren’t going to convince those same civilians that Israel is the good guy. Instead, it is going to make them feel vengeful for their friends and family that have been killed. Of course, it needs to be stated that the author does not advocate anyone to support what is deemed a terrorist organization, but it is important to understand the perspective of those affected by the conflict directly. An additional example of the consequences of indiscriminate bombing is portrayed in my post about Henry Kissinger, which covers the bombing of Cambodia and Laos. For those interested a link will be available at the end of this article.
Humanitarian Impact:
The humanitarian impact is severe, with civilian populations in conflict zones facing displacement, infrastructure damage, and limited access to necessities. The toll on mental health and the potential for a lost generation are significant concerns. Another PCPSR poll indicated that 44% of Gazans have enough food and water for a day or two, and 56% do not. Additionally, 64% of Gazan respondents said a member of their family had been killed or injured in the current war.
Media Influence and Propaganda:
Media narratives play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Both sides engage in information warfare, influencing how the conflict is perceived globally. Analyzing these narratives provides insights into the strategies employed by the involved parties.
Conclusion:
As the Axis of Resistance and Israel’s conflict unfolds, a nuanced understanding is crucial. Beyond the immediate battles, the ripple effects of military actions underscore the need for a strategic and comprehensive approach.
[Documents: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-108publ458/pdf/PLAW-108publ458.pdf]